The Grain Markets of 2025: What the ABCD Giants Reveal About Global Food Security

Michael Grismore
Nov 7
2 min read

In 2025, the global food supply chain faces its greatest test in decades. Commodity prices remain volatile, geopolitical trade routes are shifting, and the world’s four agribusiness powerhouses—ADM, Bunge, Cargill, and Louis Dreyfus—collectively influence more than 80 percent of international grain trade.

As Founder of Go Analytics, I’ve spent over 20 years analyzing these markets. Here’s what the ABCD companies tell us about the future of food security and how their movements could redefine the cost of grain for nations and consumers alike.

Understanding the Grain Titans

While smaller players innovate regionally, the ABCD firms dominate at scale—owning port terminals, rail lines, silos, and shipping fleets. Their 2024 combined revenue surpassed $400 billion, giving them unmatched leverage over supply-chain logistics.

Wheat and Durum — The New Strategic Crops

Durum wheat now represents only ~7 percent of total wheat output, yet it commands a premium due to its use in pasta and semolina. Recent Canadian and EU yield drops have tightened global supply, pushing average durum prices to $470 per ton in 2024, up 35 percent from pre-pandemic levels.

Policy, Technology, and Traceability

Governments are responding by investing in data transparency and local sourcing. Blockchain-based traceability and AI-driven logistics forecasting are no longer “experimental”—they’re essential. At Go Analytics, we help manufacturers and retailers use predictive analytics to anticipate these disruptions rather than react to them.

Key Takeaways

The ABCD companies remain the backbone of global grain movement.
Durum wheat is a small but powerful price driver.
Data transparency and traceable sourcing will separate winners from laggards.

About the Author

Michael Grismore is the Founder and Principal Consultant at Go Analytics, a management and analytics consultancy helping organizations turn complex data into clear, actionable strategy. Learn more at Go Analytics or connect with Michael on LinkedIn